Tag Archives: statistics

08/11/13

Are you willing to be wrong about that?

Full credits to Saranimals on the great title on this post. Sara blogged “Are you willing to be wrong about that?” in regard to dog training. I instantly knew I needed to create this sequel on ‘the overpopulation problem’.

 

You’ve probably heard that there is an overpopulation problem; that there are too many dogs and not enough homes. 

But, how do you know this?

And, are you willing to be wrong about that?

 

How many dogs could we fit in Australia? What is the Australian dog population?

Read on, or listen to the audio. (Audio only summarises the blog post and does not contain new information.)


 

The common figure quoted is 250, 000 dogs and cats are killed in shelters in Australia annually. While I question the accuracy of this figure (i.e. I think it’s actually quite inflated), for the purposes of this article, let’s run with it as there are no alternative figures available.

We know the RSPCA has high kill rates (except in the ACT), but I’m going to use their statistics for making a guess on how many of those 250,000 pets killed in Australian shelters are dogs. By using the RSPCA’s stats, we are probably over-stating kill rates, but I rather be using a figure that is too big than too small.

The RSPCA, Australia wide, killed 37,862 dogs and cats in the 2011/2012 financial year. 14,211 dogs and 23,651 cats. That is, 37.5% of them were dogs.

So, if we extrapolate that 37.5% of the 250,000 animals killed in shelters are dogs, then that means 93,750 are dogs.

 

We will start with the theory that 93,750 dogs are being killed in shelters in Australia each year.
This is a rough, and probably generous, estimate.

 

Australia has over 23 million people. (ABS)

 

This means, that if 0.4% of the Australian population adopted just one dog from a shelter, then there would be no dogs being killed in shelters.

Consider that 450,000 dogs and puppies are sold in Australia each year (source: ACAC paper 2009 PDF). 2% of Australians add a dog or puppy to their family each year as it stands. With 90,000 extra dogs available, we just have to bump this figure up to 2.4%.

If we could sell dogs through marketing to just 90,000 Australians (that’s a town the size of Toowoomba or Bendigo), we would effectively remove the need to kill dogs in shelters.

There are about 3.4 million dogs (3,400,000) owned in Australia (source: ACAC). This is significant because:

  • For every 362 dogs owned in Australia, one dies in Australia.  That is, less than .3% (point three percent) of Australian dogs die in shelters each year.  While it adds up to a big number, it’s not much of the total population. There’s not many irresponsible owners out there, really. It’s an important point to remember.
  • Estimates say that about 10-13% of dogs die each year from natural causes.  That means that 340,000 people have a ‘vacancy’ in their lives for a dog on an annual basis.
  • There are also a number of new vacancies as people move into new accommodation or decide to add a second dog to their family.
  • 19.61% of households who don’t own a pet want to in the future (Source: RSPCA).

So, considering all this, I’d argue that rehoming 93,750 dogs is a very achievable target.

However, I have some good news: We don’t even have to rehome 93, 750 dogs.

 

Dogs are typically owned by people.  While it is common for cats to live in free-ranging communities and never have a true owners, dogs are not the case.  When a dog becomes lost, typically, there is a home trying to find them.

So the good news is that we can try to get these 93,750 back to their original home instead of into a new home.  Shelters can:

  • As pets enter their facility, post (good quality, clear) pictures of their pets online, such as on:
  • Peruse the lost dogs notices in the local newspapers and on online sites, like those listed above.
  • Partner with local publications to get the photos of every impounded animal in print.
  • Use the details on the dog’s collar or tag to identify and contact the owner.
  • Scan the animal for a microchip and use the details to contact the owner.
  • If the name of the owner is known, but contact details are not up to date, pursue alternative ways to make contact (like using the electoral role.)

It’s hard to know exactly how many dogs could go home if the shelters invested this effort into finding their old home for them to go to.

 

Many argue that there is an overpopulation of dogs because dogs are dying in shelters. This is not evidence of an overpopulation problem. Shelter killing is the result of shelters killing.  Shelter killing is a choice that shelters make. While shelters often claim “No one wants to kill pets“, they then make choices in contradiction to this.  They choose to not actively pursue reclaims, they choose to not market animals to get them into new homes, and, then claim they have no choice but to kill their charges.

Australian shelters commit three great crimes:

  1. They do not attempt to reunite pets with their families,
  2. They do not attempt to find pets new families, and
  3. They then kill pets who fail to find existing or new families.

Clearly, there are very few dogs that enter Australian pounds, very few dogs who don’t have a home to go to, and, at the same time, an abundance of homes looking for a new dog.

We do not have an overpopulation problem. We have a shelter problem. If we want to see less shelter killing, we need to demand shelters get over the myth of overpopulation.

 

–

This post has been brewing for a long time, and I felt that I really could not articulate this as well as no-kill blogging stars Shel (at Saving Pets), Nathan Winograd (at his self-titled blog), or Christie Keith (at the Dogged Blog).

As such, I really suggest you read more on the links (below) to get a more complete view of the issue.

 

Further reading:

Why shelter killing has nothing to do with pet overpopulation (The Dogged Blog)

The Lie of Pet Overpopulation Continues

The First 60 minutes: Animal Sheltering’s Critical Hour (KC Dog Blog)

Shelter ‘overpopulation’ a function of design (Saving Pets)

Do The Math (Nathan Winograd)

How to find a dog at the shelter

Debunking Pet Overpopulation (Nathan Winograd)

Pet Overpopulation Myth (ThatMutt)

The Kobayashi Maru (Nathan Winograd)

Is pet overpopulation a myth? Inside Nathan Winograd’s book

The Seven Deadly Sins of ‘Overpopulation’ (Saving Pets)

Overpopulation Disguises the True Cause of Shelter Killing (Saving Pets)

Shelter Killing Benefits Puppy Mills (Nathan Winograd)

What a Good Pound Does

06/3/13

Where do puppies come from?

First there was Oscar’s Law, who have vilified the pet store trade, calling their producers ‘puppy mills’, and calling for people to adopt animals from shelters and rescues instead.

The RSPCA joined in, with “Close Puppy Factories” and PetRescue with “Where do puppies come from?“.

And the flow on affect was the sin of breeding dogs, with breeders as a whole being criticised, being called ‘greeders’, crucified for any profit they make from puppy sales.

The government had to act, bringing in codes that make dogs ‘Clean and Kennelled‘, which legitimises the practice of keeping dogs on concrete for sanitisation reasons.

And while the production of puppies in puppy farms is objectionable, does it really deserve this much attention?

Where do puppies really come from?

After a lot of research, the best estimate I could get is that there are approximately 450,000 dogs and puppies sold in Australia each year (source: ACAC paper 2009 PDF).

After even more research, I began to see where all these dogs and puppies were coming from. A complete list of sources is at the end of this post, but below is a table showing a breakdown of the numbers.

Table of Dog Sales in Australia

So the question Where do puppies come from? is best answered with We don’t know.

And that’s really case. If the 450,000 number is correct, then we have almost 250,000 dogs a year coming from an unknown source.

Let me put that in a graphic for you:

Graph showing where dogs and puppies come from in Australia.

 

 

So who are these unknown breeders of the undocumented sales?

 

Backyard Breeders

While ‘backyard breeder’ is a generic and undescriptive term, it is probably the most likely producers of the majority of Australian dogs.  Backyard breeders are people who occassionally breed (accidentally or deliberately) the dogs they happen to have in the backyard, either motivated by profit or romantic ideals (i.e. “every bitch should have a litter” or “the kids should see the miracle of birth”).  These sales are unrecorded.  Puppies often go to ‘friends’ or ‘friends of friends’ or they’re advertised in classifieds and given to whoever shows up with a few green bills. These dogs can be of any breed or cross, especially when accidental.

 

Working Dog Breed

By ‘working dogs’, I mean dogs bred for working stock like cattle or sheep.  While there are a few working dog registries, I had trouble finding the actual numbers of registrations (but I’m very happy to be informed!). These dogs are deliberately bred for their herding instincts, and are typically sold to working homes (such as other farmers who need stock dogs). These dogs are typical border collie, kelpie, huntaway or similar types.

 

Pig Dogs

‘Pig dogs’ are bred for hunting wild boar in Australia, and their ferocity and size are important factors in these breedings. Pig dogs are probably far-less common than the BYB and working dog bred types, and there’s probably some overlap between BYBers and pig dog breeders.  These dogs are generally large crossbreeds, commonly large bull breeds crossed with sighthounds or scenthounds.

 

Camp Dogs

Many of Australia’s indigenous people live on settlements with a number free ranging dogs.  Though these dogs are often owned (that is, there is normally a person or a family that identify a number of dogs as ‘theirs’), they are often unconfined and freely breed with one another.  Some of these dogs get rehomed through rescue groups like Desert Dogs, and some get desexed on site through groups like AMRRIC.  Camp dogs are often smooth-coated dogs with large prick ears, but not always. They are true mixed breeds which do not look like any breed in particular and come in a variety of colours, types, and sizes.

 

Flaws in the Data

While every attempt has been made to make this analysis as accurate as possible, some of the data used is inevitably flawed.

The figure of 450,000 dogs and puppies sold in Australia annually is an estimate.  It is unclear if this is only dogs and puppies sold (so if it does not include ‘give aways’ or dogs that stay in the same home from whelping to death).  I have also seen this figure of 450,000 quoted as being just the number of puppies sold in the country annually, and not inclusive of adult dogs.  I have used this number in the broadest sense – that it includes puppies and dogs, sold and given away.

The rescue sales are hard to conceptualise. Though many rescues use PetRescue for rehoming, not all do.  Those that do don’t necessarily list all animals available on PetRescue. It’s possible that PetRescue data duplicates some of the rehoming by the other rescue groups listed. So, all the rescue stats, from PetRescue and others, are sketchy at best. This especially true considering many groups do not publish their statistics.

While all dogs bred by ANKC breeders out of ANKC dogs must be registered, that doesn’t mean that they all are. The number of dogs bred by ANKC breeders is probably higher (but not much) than that listed.

I tampered with the greyhounds figure a bit. While national registrations are put at about 13,000, we know that many greyhounds aren’t registered.  If we work on greyhounds having an average litter size of 6.5, then the figure of 20,000 is a lot more conceivable. (The figure of 13,000 has the average greyhound litter size of 4!)

I just wanted to acknowledge that my data is probably partly inaccurate, but I don’t doubt the overall conclusions I have reached from this data. That is, while some bits may be a little bit off, the whole thing is probably not a lot off.

 

So what does this mean?

By far the biggest producer of dogs are unknown.  We can speculate that they are the backyard breeders, the working dog breeders, the pig dog hunters, or the free ranging dogs on indigenous camps, but without more extensive research we can’t really work out who is our biggest dog-sellers, except that it is likely to be one of these groups.

But it raises the question: If we are concerned about the breeding and sale of dogs in Australia, are registered breeders and pet shops really the people that we need to be going after?

 

Further reading:

How puppy mills contribute to killing in our pounds (conclusion: they don’t).

The National Animal Interest Alliance produces similar statistics, but for the USA – most puppies come from ‘amateur’ or ‘mixed breed’ breeders.

Why getting pets out of pet shops doesn’t stop puppy farmers

 

 

References: Continue reading →